Ukraine war: Why demanding Putin’s unconditional ceasefire is a mistake

The leaders of France, the U.K., Germany, and Poland over the weekend joined Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to “demand” that Putin immediately agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

If Putin doesn’t submit, they warn, more painful sanctions will be levied on Moscow. The result of this latest “coalition of the willing” action will ensure that the war continues, and any possibility of peace will be destroyed. If there were an anti-Nobel Peace Prize, these five men would surely win it.

 Taking aim at Putin-Zelensky and Europe DEMAND unconditional ceaseFire

Why can’t the Ukraine conflict come to an end?

Trump has been seeking, almost from the day of his inauguration, to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has engaged in direct diplomacy with Putin on the phone, sent his personal representative Steve Witkoff to numerous meetings with Russian representatives, and dispatched Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Saudi Arabia and Kyiv to find consensus between the two sides. None of his efforts have yielded fruit.

It is understandable, if unhelpful, that Zelensky has resisted Trump’s peace-seeking efforts, because the Ukrainian leader does not want to cement in the losses his country has suffered over the past nearly three plus years. Zelensky does not want to make an agreement now that will render the potentially million-plus casualties his Armed Forces have suffered since February 2022. The reality, however, is that choosing to avoid ending the war on disadvantageous terms is not an option Zelensky has.

The die has already been cast, and Ukraine will lose the war. Ukraine can either acknowledge reality and diplomatically agree to an ugly deal now, or he can continue to ignore reality and increase the chances that his nation suffers an outright military defeat, costing potentially hundreds more Ukrainian men to pointless deaths. Unfortunately, Zelensky isn’t the only impediment to ending the war. He has pernicious enablers.

Instead of taking the lead of the American president, Kier Starmer of Great Britain, Manuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany, and Donald Tusk of Poland feed Zelensky’s ego and continue to advise him to resist settling the war. The four Europeans have together formed a so-called “coalition of the willing” to enable Ukraine to continue fighting.

Over the weekend, the ‘coalition’ joined Zelensky to “demand” an immediate and unconditional ceasefire by Russia in the war so that a “just and lasting peace” can be found. Of course, Starmer’s definition of a just and lasting peace is for Putin to essentially walk away from the war, giving everything it has won on the battlefield back to Ukraine. These men aren’t stupid. They know Russia – from a position of irrevocable military superiority – will never submit to the weaker opponent.

The only result, therefore, will be more war, more death for Ukraine, more loss of territory, and more destruction of its cities.

Zelensky, encouraged by European leaders, has refused every diplomatic off-ramp that could have prevented the war from breaking out, or could have ended the war (Istanbul 2022, after the failed offensive in 2023, and in the summer of 2024). This may be his last diplomatic off-ramp. The Russians appear ready to give diplomacy at least one more chance, but it may be the final one.

Almost immediately after Zelensky and his European colleagues issued Russia the stern warning to agree to a ceasefire by Monday, Putin responded that instead he would be willing to meet with Ukrainian officials in Istanbul on Thursday. Trump immediately responded on Truth Social, saying the Ukrainian side should take this opportunity “immediately,” and on Monday Trump even offered to join the talks personally. 

But Russian patience is wearing thin. Because while Putin continues to offer talks, he repeated his oft-stated imperative that Russia will continue to fight while talking. The Ukrainian Army continues to be whittled down every day in fighting against the Russians. Ukraine is deficient in quantities and quality of air power, air defense, numbers of tanks and personnel carriers, artillery ammunition, industrial production capacity, and above all, a dearth of manpower. They simply cannot continue to fight in definitely, or they will eventually suffer an outright defeat.

It is my sense that Russia is very near the point to where they will either gain through negotiations the draconian terms they presently offer to end the fighting, or they will conclude that pressing the fight until they seize their objectives on the battlefield is the best guarantee for their needs. 

Ukraine war: What happens now? 

It won’t matter what Zelensky thinks or hopes, it won’t matter how many superlatives Starmer gives Zelensky or how many hugs Macron gives the Ukrainian leader: Russian military advantages will eventually overpower the Ukrainian Army and they will win the war. Every day Europe and Zelensky avoids ending the war through diplomacy – even on avowedly ugly terms – more Ukrainian men suffer unnecessary death. With enough days, the Army will collapse and Russia will win. That will be quite the legacy for Europe.