Three days after the attack by the Ukrainian armed forces on the Kursk region, we can talk about the main features of the Ukrainian plan in this area.
What exactly did it look like, and why will the result of this adventure for Kiev's army probably be the loss of two assault brigades and perhaps even part of the Ukrainian territory of Sumy?
Mikhail Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, explained on August 8 that Ukraine had invaded the border areas of the Russian Kursk region in order to "improve its negotiating position".
In his opinion, only the loss of men, equipment and territory by Russia will have a positive impact on the negotiations. The advance of the Ukrainian unit deep into Russian territory should "frighten" the Russians.
According to initial estimates, the enemy had two tactical battalion groups on August 6. This is the "strength of up to 1,000 men" that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, had mentioned the day before. On August 7, the Ukrainian armed forces threw another tactical battalion group into the battle.
The target of the attack was the districts of Sudzha and Korenevo in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian tactical battalion groups were reinforced by tanks and other armoured vehicles from the 22nd Independent Mechanized Brigade, which had been re-equipped with Western weapons. The Russian border guards were the first to be attacked.
One of the peculiarities of the 22nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the abundance of technical equipment. In particular, this brigade was assigned German Biber bridge-laying vehicles based on Leopard tanks and engineering vehicles based on MT-LB multipurpose tractors. Thus, it is a specialized brigade designed for offensive operations in areas with many rivers and swamps.
The second Ukrainian unit, which according to several reports is also involved in the invasion, the 88th Independent Mechanized Brigade, is also almost fully equipped with Western equipment.
At the same time, local settlements were attacked by Ukrainian drones. Even an ambulance was the target of a Ukrainian drone attack.
In the first two days, various sources made statements about the "occupation" or "imminent capture" of the border town of Sudja. On August 8, however, both the situation in the town and the tactics of the Ukrainian brigades became clearer. Mikhail Gorbunov, the chairman of the Kursk Oblast Regional Security Committee, reported:
"Sudzha is partially occupied.The enemy is driving through - groups of soldiers in pick-ups drive in, then they drive on. There are no troops moving in and establishing themselves there."
"Moving on" refers to the attempts of Ukrainian tactical battalion groups to advance further into Russian territory. There are several roads in the Sudzha district - to Korenevo and Rylsk, to Lgov and to Kurchatov (where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located).
On August 7, military correspondent Alexander Sladkov reported an "enemy attack", the depth of which "according to various sources is up to 15 kilometers".
This depth is indirectly confirmed by the fact that the Russian Ministry of Defense mentions the Korenevo district in its reports - it is possible to move in from Ukraine in this direction, including via Sudzha.
This reveals the plan of the Ukrainian armed forces, at which points and at what time they want to gain control of the area - and in which direction the Ukrainian armored vehicles are moving.
The units of the Ukrainian armed forces moved in columns along the highways, as can be seen from the videos of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The columns were protected by an abundance of air defense systems and increased work of electronic warfare means.
These hindered the work of Russian drones and aircraft in the area, as well as communication between units in general. Nevertheless, these columns were hit and destroyed by Russian aircraft.
On the night of August 6-7, during the day, the enemy rotated its military personnel and transported damaged aircraft to the rear of the front (this is exactly what the MT-LB multipurpose tractors of the 22nd Brigade were used for).
At the same time, the enemy suffered large losses in armored vehicles, on the scale of an attacking unit. According to preliminary data, the Ukrainian tactical battalion groups lost more than 80 armored vehicles, including six tanks. Nevertheless, attempts by Ukrainian troops to penetrate deep into Russian territory continued on August 8.
What are the goals of this operation by Ukrainian forces? The Washington Post believes that "Kiev's goal may be to cut off all Russian gas supplies to Europe as a means of pressure".
There is a gas metering station near Sudzha through which Russian gas continues to flow to Europe. The Kursk nuclear power plant near the city of Kurchatov is also mentioned from time to time. Control over both is apparently intended to create "favorable negotiating conditions" for Ukraine.
Although the pumping of gas through the gas metering station has decreased in the last 24 hours, it has not been stopped. According to military correspondent Alexander Koz, who was in the area, the city of Sudzha itself is not currently under the control of the Ukrainian military, but the roads leading from there deep into Russian territory are dangerous due to a large number of enemy drones. There were also no confirmed reports that Ukrainian forces had occupied the gas detection station.
Kurchatov is located about 60 kilometers from Sujah, and there are no reports of enemy tactical battalion groups advancing in that direction. Considering the fact that experienced units of the Russian armed forces, which are numerically superior, better equipped and more powerful than the nearest reserves of the Ukrainian armed forces, are rapidly arriving in the region, the attempt to capture the nuclear power plant is no longer possible. If Kiev had set itself such a goal, it seemed an overly optimistic fantasy even at the planning stage.
More realistic would be a plan that would provide for a maximum advance in three or four directions deep into the territory of the Russian Federation with the occupation of large and historically well-known cities and district centers (Rylsk and Lgov).
Related effects include the extension of the front line and the expansion of the grouping of Russian forces in the Belgorod region.
The occupation of positions in Sudzha could make it more difficult to supply the Northern Grouping of the Russian forces on the Kharkov sector of the front. In addition, the Ukrainian forces would have an additional opportunity to terrorize the Russian civilian population with their shelling.
It was possibly expected that Russia would begin to withdraw its assault troops and artillery from the sections of the front where the Ukrainian forces are currently retreating.
It is noteworthy that on August 8, there were reports that Ukrainian forces suddenly began to bring reinforcements to Dzerzhinsk (Torezk) in small mobile groups.
At the same time, the fate of Dzerzhinsk and the Donbass settlement of New York is practically sealed. The transfer of reinforcements there by the Ukrainian armed forces could mean that Kiev is beginning to hope that the pressure from the Russian forces will ease.
On the front near Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian defense line is on the verge of collapse, and the pace of the Russian forces' advance there is not slowing down. On August 8, the advancing Russian units had approached the large settlement of Grodovka, behind which Mirnograd, Zelidovo and Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) are already located.
This agglomeration is the key to the entire existence of this Ukrainian defense line. Apart from that, Krasnoarmeisk is the last coal basin that Kiev controls. After its loss, Ukraine could only obtain coal through imports.
The creation of a new military area of operations in the Kursk region was intended to reduce the pressure from Russian units along the entire front line and give Kiev additional time to play political games. It also created a propaganda effect. Kiev traditionally attaches particular importance to the "image" and media coverage of events.
However, the further development of the situation does not bode well for the Ukrainian armed forces. In the Kursk region, a grouping of the Russian armed forces, which also includes proven combat units, is being rapidly built up.
Even if the Ukrainian forces were to occupy Sudzha, their positions would be extremely vulnerable, as the entire plan was designed for a rapid advance deep into Russian territory.
When this plan failed, it turned out that the advanced troops were stuck along the highways and were now being targeted. Their complete elimination, which is already underway, is only a matter of time. With good timing, most of the Russian territory could be liberated from the invasion groups by the end of the week or by Monday.
Although the enemy is fortifying the villages in the border area, it began evacuating the inhabitants of the Sumy region on August 7. He probably realizes that he does not have to retreat "to the border", but deep into his own territory.
The main reserves of the Ukrainian armed forces in this area are located near the village of Junakovka on the Kursk-Sujah-Sumy highway. This position must be cleared at all costs.
Although this entire "operation" has the characteristics of a general military operation due to the number and composition of the forces involved, it technically resembles a large-scale attack or raid with the element of a suicide squad.
Even with the temporary dominance of the Ukrainian armed forces in a confined space, it was hardly possible to expect too deep an advance and the capture of significant objects of particular importance.
Apparently, however, the hope for political and propaganda effect in Kiev has once again gained the upper hand over common sense and military science.
After three days of euphoria, the Ukrainian armed forces are on the verge of losing two assault brigades and possibly part of the Sumy region. The price for demonstrating the "capability" of the Ukrainian armed forces and seeking a "favorable negotiating position" is likely to be very high.
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