Updated: Aug 19
-The United Nations call it their ‘Replacement Migration Program’, but is it a solution to declining and ageing populations?
United Nations projections indicate that over the next 25 years, the populations of virtually all countries of Europe as well as the United States will face population decline and population ageing.
The new challenges of declining and ageing populations will require comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programs, including those relating to international migration.
Focusing on these two striking and critical population trends, the report considers replacement migration for six low-fertility countries (France, Germany, Italy, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and United States) and two regions (Europe and the European Union).
Replacement migration refers to the international migration that a country would need to offset population decline and population ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates.
It’s explained in this PDF, of which I filtered the pages printed in English and the projections for the European countries, the EU and the USA..
The United Nations don’t even hide their projections. You can find all about it under ‘United Nations Replacement program.
Both scenarios below, and more, are displayed in the PDF
This Scenario keeps the size of the total population of Europe constant at its maximum of 728 million, and calculates the number of migrants that would be required in order to prevent the decline of the population in the face of an increasing excess of deaths over births.
The calculations show that a net total of 100 million migrants would be required during the period 1995-2050 just to maintain the total population of Europe at its 1995 level.
This corresponds to an average of approximately 1.8 million net migrants per year. By 2050, out of a total population of 728 million, 127 million, or close to 18 per cent,
would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.
Scenario United states
This Scenario keeps the size of the total United States population constant at its maximum of 298 million that it would reach in 2030 (assuming no in-migration after 1995).
In order to keep the total population constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 6.4 million migrants between 2030 and 2050, which is an average of 319,000 migrants per year.
By 2050, out of a total population of 298 million, 7.3 million, or 2.5 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.