Updated: Apr 21, 2022
Political analysis and emotional instability do not go well together, so please – do not read further if you are not able to get beyond exclamations like “War is madness!” and “How men can kill each other!”
Unfortunately, wars and shooting at our neighbors are natural states and behaviors of humanity, whether we like it or not – thus let’s just find some facts look for their explanations. Also as far as war in Ukraine concerned.
Demilitarization through war
And the facts, based on information from both sides, are as follows: as of 13 March the Russian military plan appears to be consistently implemented. It seems that the main goal is the liquidation of larger Ukrainian military groups on the eastern and southern fronts – that is making further resistance impossible. The largest cities will not be stormed, but encircled and blocked, probably to avoid losses among the civilian population and destruction. The Russians still dominate the air.
Moscow never claimed that it was going to be a quick war, but it certainly did not involve any major Russian forces. Well, what we see on the map – was obtained with the participation of the number of Russian troops initially several times less than the Ukrainian army.
Therefore, we can presume that Russia is not so much conquering Ukraine as it is quite radically ... demilitarizing. In this we can guess the intention of a political settlement after the liquidation of organized armed resistance.
Whether and how this will be achieved depends, however, on non-military factors. And it can also be assumed that the end of the war does not have to correspond to the propaganda goals set in Kiev.
We also do not know the current distribution of influences or interests of oligarchic groups co-deciding on Ukrainian policy, including, of course, Western orders.
War without war consequences?
So much we know, no conclusions. Critics accuse Russia of two things. First of all - that in this phase of the conflict Russia shot first, what is both doubtful and infantile. Second - that Russia is waging the war too ... humanely.
If in the Russians' place were Americans – Kyiv and Lviv would already have been flattened out and the invasive army would march to establish freedom and democracy on ruins and among thousands of dead bodies. With strong applause all over the world, certainly.
Meanwhile, the Russians are trying to wage war without any war consequences, with small forces and, if possible, limited to purely military purposes, which prolongs the resolution of the conflict.
So in fact, the hysterical Facebook community demands from the Russians that they either become victims themselves or attack Ukrainian civilians. Fortunately, however, Vladimir Putin, who is for sure passionate about Western Internet commentaries, also has somewhat wiser advisers...
Essentially peace cannot be the goal. Peace is only a moment when other than war methods of politics are practiced. Was the president of the Russian Federation supposed to vainly repeat the 1,164 calls for a return to the Minsk agreements?
Handling things and starting an operation that was in fact a pre-emptive attack – was an attempt to avoid Stalin's mistake to let Hitler attack himself instead of being the first to strike. It’s easy to say and write today that there would be no Western-Ukrainian attack. Fortunately, however, neither the Russians nor the people of Donbass had to check the costs of a mistake and refrained from acting when it was necessary.
Others believe that as a result of the war, “Russia is becoming dependent on China.”. Well, first of all, not so much dependent as interdependent. This is what the reality of the multi-polar world will be like: the multifaceted interdependencies of independent actors, not the eternal expectation of a hegemon's smile.
The Hegemon that just ended. Russia told the US “I'm checking”. She herself has not won it yet, but if we wiped Western tearful eyes and sniffed our noses - we would notice that American rules, orders and declarations mean nothing anymore.
Russia may win quickly; maybe stuck for weeks – it does not matter anymore. It turns out you can really not listen to Washington and London – and there is exactly NOTHING important going to happen. That is the most important observation from the course of the war so far.
And when will the war end? To predict this we have to remember how Ukraine is really governed. The oligarchs' rule over Ukraine is not (only) limited to the appropriation of its financial assets but is related to the domination of the localized sectors of Ukrainian industry.
From the oligarchs' point of view, then, the war will end when the political and military control over their territories pass from hand to hand. Of course, the interest of the West is also different, as it wants this war to continue indefinitely, even if only in the media.
This also meets the needs of the Nazis, to whom no one will talk or make peace with. Anglo-Saxons and Nazis will destroy Ukraine together rather than allow it to be rebuilt. Not only will no one ever let Westerners know that Russia has won this war, but even that the war is over.
There will always be some calling-out UPA-Nazi Commander, one “city defending forever” in the Nazi-infested part of Ukraine, a mountain bunker or a villa of the "Government in exile" – proving “the final defeat of the Russian aggression plan!”. And in this sense, the war will last forever, because Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia. Or maybe with Eastasia?
Who wants World War III
For now, we should at least understand the basics:
Whoever wants Ukraine to join NATO – supports World War III.
Whoever demands No Flight Zone over Ukraine – supports World War III.
Whoever sends even more weapons and military equipment to Ukraine - wants to extend the current conflict, deepen the tragedy of the Ukrainian nation and increase the threat of the outbreak of World War III.
Whoever allows Kiev or NATO fighters to start from Polish, Lithuanian, Turkish or other NATO airports to fight against the Russians – will lead to World War III.