*Russia warns of “inevitable” escalation if NATO conducts preemptive strike

A senior Russian military expert has warned that any NATO attempt to carry out a preemptive strike on Russian territory would lead to a full-scale conflict, potentially including the use of nuclear weapons. The comments come amid heightened rhetoric in Europe about military planning and deterrence.

The debate was reignited after Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, told the Financial Times that the alliance was preparing for the possibility of a preemptive operation in response to what he described as Russia’s ongoing “hybrid war” against Europe.

He cited cyberattacks and damage to undersea infrastructure as examples, though he offered no public evidence.

Some Baltic officials and strategists have gone further. Latvian political commentator Jurgis Liepnieks recently speculated that European air forces could “easily destroy” Russia’s military infrastructure in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg and blockade the Baltic Fleet in port.

The remarks triggered a sharp response in Moscow. Air Force Major General Vladimir Popov, a decorated military pilot and frequent analyst in Russian media, cautioned that such ideas underestimate the risks of escalation. In an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets, Popov argued that any Western strike on Russian territory—regardless of scale—would cross a threshold with unpredictable consequences.

“Planning is already underway”

Popov said that when military officials speak publicly of preemptive action, it typically reflects preliminary operational planning.

“NATO headquarters does not plan isolated launches of tactical missiles,” he said. “It plans large-scale operational missions. If we are talking about a mass launch of cruise missiles at Russian territory, then every country involved must understand the consequences. That would already be World War III.”

Popov dismissed the idea that a strike could later be explained away as accidental or unintentional.

“Our response would not change,” he said. “We have automated systems that register launches directed at Russia. If a strike is detected, countermeasures will follow.”

Kaliningrad identified as a potential flashpoint

Popov described the Kaliningrad exclave—bordered by Poland and Lithuania—as a likely first target if NATO ever attempted limited preemptive action. The region hosts Russian missile systems, radars, and naval assets that Western planners consider strategically significant.

According to Popov, Russian missile-defense networks would automatically launch interceptors and retaliatory strikes at the originating area of any incoming missile.

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“We would not hit only the launchpad,” he noted. “We would target the entire area to prevent further attacks. A surprise strike without consequences is impossible.”

He added that Russia might consider using tactical nuclear weapons if its leadership assessed that a mass NATO attack was underway.

Military caution vs. political rhetoric

Popov suggested that the fact such proposals are now voiced by military leaders, not only politicians, could signal heightened tension inside NATO. However, he argued that professional officers generally understand the risks better than political figures.

He cited past incidents, including leaked conversations in which German officers discussed hypothetical strikes using Taurus cruise missiles, as evidence that military planners often retreat from aggressive proposals once the real implications become clear.

“There are still sensible generals in France, Germany, and even Poland,” he said. “They know what a ground operation against Kaliningrad or any other Russian region would mean.”

NATO buildup would be monitored long before any attack

Popov rejected the notion that NATO could launch a quick strike and then immediately withdraw.

“There can be no ‘attack and retreat’ scenario,” he said. “We would not sit down for negotiations until we had delivered an adequate response.”

He added that Russia would detect any major NATO troop movements long before they reached offensive positions.

“Months pass between declarations and real deployment,” he said. “Our intelligence would track the movement of forces toward the Polish-Belarusian border or Kaliningrad. At the moment, nothing of that scale is happening.”

Rising tensions, no immediate mobilization

While the rhetoric on both sides has escalated in recent months, Popov emphasized that, in his view, no imminent troop concentrations indicate preparations for a NATO ground operation.

Still, he warned that in the coming years—particularly within a five-year horizon—an increase in NATO pressure is possible as member states continue to expand defense budgets and modernize their militaries.