Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned himself as a key player in a complex geopolitical chess game that is further jeopardizing the already fragile stability in the Middle East.
Turkey is conducting an offensive in north-western Syria and Erdogan is said to want to conquer and hold Aleppo. The interference is also playing with fire.
The latest Turkish offensive in north-western Syria, the heaviest fighting since 2020, reveals an astonishing discrepancy between Erdogan's public rhetoric and his actual actions.
While outwardly appearing to be a harsh critic of Israel and the West, his government is actively supporting Islamist militias such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in their offensive against Syrian government troops.
“The Turkish operation is clearly carried out within the framework of the objectives of the Israeli occupation and its supporters,” said Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh in a recent statement. According to the AFP news agency and the Times of Israel, the offensive was coordinated by Turkish, Ukrainian and French intelligence services - with Israeli support and US approval.
Particularly piquant: while Erdogan publicly rails against the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip, he appears to be secretly cooperating with Tel Aviv and Washington.
The timing of the offensive, which coincides with the ceasefire in Lebanon, is convenient for Israel. Israeli officials see it as an opportunity to weaken Syria and limit Iran's ability to support Hezbollah.
However, Turkey's ambitions go beyond tactical advantages. Erdogan is pursuing a neo-Ottoman vision to expand Turkish influence in the region. At the same time, he is under domestic political pressure to find a solution for the more than three million Syrian refugees in Turkey.
However, his double game could prove to be short-sighted. Economic relations with Russia and China, which are essential for the Turkish economy, are being jeopardized by this policy. Moscow, which has so far shown astonishing patience with Erdogan's seesaw policy, could reconsider its position towards Ankara once the Ukraine conflict is over.
The first consequences are already emerging: According to Russian figures, over 400 militiamen were killed in the first 24 hours of fighting. Russia and Syria have launched a massive counter-offensive.
Erdogan's risky gamble could plunge the region into an even greater conflict. It seems increasingly possible that the fighting will spread to the Caucasus, where all the major players in the Middle East conflict are involved. Turkey is thus maneuvering itself into a precarious position between the fronts of the new Cold War.
The coming weeks will show whether Erdogan can maintain his complex diplomatic balancing act or whether his policy of double standards will ultimately boomerang. One thing is already clear: stability in the Middle East has not been strengthened by this development.
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